Asian Times

Two big news stories are coming out of Asia today: the coup in Thailand, and Shinzo Abe being selected to lead the Japanese Liberal Democrat Party (effectively making him the next prime minister). Both of these events worry me. On the other hand, yesterday China agreed to send 1,000 troops to Lebanon, and this should be recognized as the landmark event that it is.

I have been following Thai politics for the last year and a half not only because I went there but also because they are really quite fascinating. I’ve ranted on several occasions before about Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand’s former prime minister. He won the election a year and a half ago in a landslide—mostly because he coerced farmers in the countryside to vote for him either by closely monitoring their votes, or by offering free cell phones (he became rich and famous in Thailand for owning one of the biggest telecommunication firms). I just chalked that up to Thai politics, and was at least mildly satisfied with the knowledge that he had fairly progressive rural reforms that were helping the poorer farmers properly establish themselves and earn better livings.

Then, several months ago, things started to go horribly wrong. Thaksin was exposed as the corrupt official that he is, having sold his telecommunications empire to the Singaporean government for US$1.9 billion tax free after having conveniently changed a few laws around so that he could avoid the taxes. $1.9 billion is a lot of money in any country, but in Thailand, where a meal could cost as little as 50 cents, it’s an extremely large sum. And so, protests blocked the streets of Bangkok.

Long story short, the protestors forced Thaksin to dissolve the parliament and have new elections, but they boycotted those, so the results from that election (which Thaksin won, again in a landslide) were annulled. Thaksin stepped down as prime minister (likely because the King, who was having his golden jubilee, asked him to) and said he would be a “caretaker prime minister” until new elections were held this November.

Given the fragility of the Thai democracy, this coup worries me a great deal. Will they be able to re-establish democracy like they say they will? Will they pull a Bush, and declare war on the Muslim terrorists in the south of Thailand and say they can’t leave? Will the Philippines follow the Thai lead and create a successful coup attempt (there have been four or five in the last year) to overthrow Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, further destabilizing the region? Or is this the only way to get a new Thai government without Thaksin? Only time will tell.

Meanwhile, China’s reaction: it is internal Thai politics, and we will not interfere. Give me a break.

On the Japanese front, the effective selection of Abe as the next prime minister is also of great concern. He is more nationalistic than even his predecessor, having come into my field of vision on July 4th, when the North Koreans test-launched their missiles (failure or not). At that time, Abe suggested that a pre-emptive strike on North Korea would be in Japan’s best interest. Born after WWII, I’m afraid he missed the impact that had on generations. He supports the annual visits to the Yasukuni shrine (which holds the remains of several Japanese military officials who were later charged with war crimes during WWII), and textbooks that downplay the Japanese-caused atrocities of WWII, both of which are certain to rifle Chinese feathers.

One of my friends in China sent me an email just the other day saying that it was the 60th (or something like that) anniversary of the Japanese invasion of Manchuria (certainly not something the Chinese would be celebrating). In commemoration, air-raid sirens rang through the air, followed by the Chinese national anthem broadcast over loudspeakers. One of her co-workers shouted out: “fight the Japanese.”

An even more hawkish Japanese prime minister is only going to further a great divide in Asia that would inevitably cause the US to take sides. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States (and maybe Australia) against China, North Korea, and maybe Vietnam. I’m afraid it’s not a pretty picture that doesn’t require much imagination to come up with.

And on a final note, I would like to call attention to the fact that just yesterday, the Chinese announced that they would be sending 1,000 troops to Lebanon. This is big! China loves to take the position of not interfering in the “internal politics of other nations,” for it would be hypocritical not to. They claim that the “Taiwanese issue” is a matter of their internal affairs, and should not be interfered in by other countries (read, the US). This means that they support the Sudanese government by buying oil ignoring the fact that the Sudanese government is committing genocide because it is the “internal affairs” of Sudan.

Indeed, when the tsunami struck almost two years ago, Thailand looked to its big brother, China, for support. Where Japan, Australia, the US, and the EU sent millions of dollars of aid, China sent a pittance and eight specialists. And at some level this is understandable; China has enough internal problems that it should be focused on before trying to help others.

But my argument always has been that if China wants to become a dominant player in the world, it has to start acting like a leader. That means helping other countries out when they are in difficult situations, and not covering up when their government screws up (like they did with the most recent typhoon, Saomei was the name I believe).

Well, now they have, committing a significant number of troops to the Lebanese peace-keeping mission, something the US can’t even claim to have done (because we’re busy maintaining “peace” in Afghanistan and Iraq of course). My kudos to the Chinese government for doing something morally correct for a change. At the same time, this could be a first step in a shifting world dynamic which has a jingoistic China on the ascendant.