Seeing green

On my last visit to the US in March, the trans-Atlantic leg of my flight was particularly empty. I had a full row to myself, and bodies dotted the section.

Today the flight is full, and I’m crammed into the back corner. At least it’s a window seat. More families flying than I’m used to – families out for summer jaunts in Europe, defying all my lofty predictions of Americans avoiding a too-expensive Europe this summer. London has swelled noticeably in the last month, both in numbers and in waistline. Summer, and America, has arrived.

My knees have been carefully hitting the back of a (junior?) high school girl sitting in front of me. During the flight she has been passing a crisp three-ring binder back and forth to her sister in the row ahead. A sudden nostalgic rush for the easy-to-organise days of high school swept over me.

As I stood up to stretch, I couldn’t help but sneak a peek at her black notebook as she was dutifully scribbling. ‘Then we went to Rome, which wasn’t as green as…’, I glimpsed the bubble letters to my delight.

What I wouldn’t give to be back on a school trip, where my careful assignment was to record observations and experiences. The beautiful simplicity found in a dusty Rome seemed a lavish break from The Economist’s woeful prognostications on the future of Zimbabwe that had so enthralled me just one seat, one step, behind.

As we whisk our way past Nunavut, I can only hope that Seattle and Colorado offer a paradoxical fresh start. A chance to disengage with global debates. A chance to revel at the majestic Rockies (no, not the baseball team, though I’m looking particularly forward to the game on Monday). A chance to see green…or possibly brown. It is Colorado after all!

OK Hillary, there's one thing I don't understand...

For having gone to the London School of Economics, you'd think I'd know something on the topic. But, much to the chagrin of my father, I have yet to take an economics course. That doesn't mean that I don't have an understanding of economic fundamentals, it just means that I have a difficult time answering the deeper questions.

I was just listening to the Democratic debate in South Carolina, and it started with Hillary touting her economic stimulus package.

As I was listening, I took notes, and here are the key points:

• $110 billion economic stimulus plan


• $70 billion goes to 'the mortgage crisis'


• Moratorium on home foreclosures for 90 days


• $650 to help offset high energy costs this winter


• Invest in green collar jobs


• Fund for communities who are dealing with housing crisis


• 5-year freeze on interest rates


• Rebates if anything left over

Ok, in terms of sheer monetary value, $110 billion is a bit less than Bush's $145 billion, but since we've already spent that times 10 (made up guess here) on the war in Iraq, maybe this is a good time to stop increasing our national deficit by a little. It's also probably better spent than Bush's proposed tax rebates...

$70 billion going to 'the mortgage crisis' is a little vague, but CNN forced her into soundbite mode. Presumably this is to help rescue the banks who have caused this situation to begin with and to keep 'sovereign funds' (xenophobic code word for outside investors with no loyalty to the US) from investing in American ventures.

Moratorium on home foreclosures for 90 days. This seems sensible to me, let's have a few months to figure things out and readjust.

$650 per qualified household to offset high energy costs? Not great. Let's start with installing low-energy light bulbs, being proactive about turning things off standby and not leaving unnecessary devices plugged in (and maybe as a longer-term solution we install outlets with switches on them like in the UK to help reduce consumption. If the American government is bothering to subsidise the TV digital switchover, you'd think we could subsidise energy-saving measures). Maybe we could also turn down the central heating and put on an extra two jumpers? Seriously, the US is still the largest energy consumer on the planet per capita, there's room for real cuts to be made.

Invest in green collar jobs. Great idea! Helps the environment, and is proactive to helping redefine America's edge in the global economy. Plus, see point above on energy reduction. Gold star, Hillary.

Fund for communities dealing with the mortgage crisis. Not against this one, but again, very vague.

5-year freeze on interest rates. Now this is one that I just simply do NOT understand. Hillary argues that we need stability to avoid more foreclosures. OK, but here's what I don't get:

One of the main ways that the US likes to deal with inflation is by raising and lowering interest rates (note the 75-basis-points reduction by the fed just yesterday). Higher rates make lending more expensive, reduces the amount of money in the market and helps tamp down prices. Now, worries of inflation are not usually far from an economist's mind, but the current situation seems particularly ripe for inflation: the US dollar is extremely weak, oil and gold are near all-time highs, there is a high risk of a worldwide food shortage, and government subsidies and the growth in biofuels have led to near record highs in comestible oils like palm, corn and soy. What about high energy prices, high food prices, and a weak dollar doesn't SCREAM inflation? Not to mention that with current rates of inflation in China, the price of manufactured goods is likely on the rise.

To me, high risk of inflation + no mechanism for controlling inflation = really bad idea!

So, Hillary, what am I not understanding? Are you not actually proposing to hold interest rates at the fed but only for mortgages? If that's the case, how exactly are you proposing to do that? What authority would you even have to do that?

If you are thinking federal interest rates, then how are you planning on controlling for inflation? Raising the value of the dollar globally (that would hurt exports, but I'm still not convinced that we should be trying to position the US as a manufacturing-driven export economy)? Pegging the dollar to the price of gold (with gold still near record highs, would this be helpful?)? Price fixing and subsidies for basic commodities (which generally seems like a bad idea. See, for example, Zimbabwe. Or even Egypt)? Holding down wages a la Gordon Brown's current fight with UK police officers (I thought Hillary wanted to support the middle class)?

Seriously, can anyone else out there explain this one to me, cause I don't get it!

Global economy ≠ Global society

Now that the pump is primed and I have you thinking about Davos; and now that my duties as a member of the ODI comms team have been fulfilled, and I have promoted my colleagues' opinions. It's my turn:

What better place to start than the IHT?

You know something big is happening when an article published just today topped the 'most emailed in the last 24 hours' list and is quickly ascending the 'most emailed in the last 30 days' list. The article that's causing the sensation: On the cusp of economic history.

The main argument of the article is that the fate of the world economy has arrived at a crucial tipping point. 30 years of neo-liberal, pro-market values have led us to this climax of global uncertainty. With what Hillary Clinton fears may be a recession (in case you missed her stump speech(es), she pretends to be the only one in the world smart enough to have seen this one coming. Indeed, I'm tempted to call it the 2008 Hillary Clinton memorial recession if she keeps on like this!) looming heavily, the repercussions are already being felt throughout the global economy.

What's worse, the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer. A good measure of this is the GINI coefficient, a common measure of wealth distribution that ranges between 0 and 1, where 1 is extremely unequal and 0 is highly equitable. (See Wikipedia for a good introduction).

Consider this graphic representation of GINI coefficients from around the world since WWII:


The American GINI, sitting at 0.469 in 2005 is at its all-time high for the country since the statistic has been calculated. And what about China, which is supposed to be chipping away at American wealth? It's roughly equivalent to that of the US, and also sits at an all-time high for its country.

This, of course, runs counter to the fundamentals of neo-liberal economics which can be effectively summarised by the rather trite: 'a rising tide lifts all ships'. A stronger global economy was supposed to strengthen national economies. Or, in the words of the article:

"In theory [...] wages increase with productivity growth and all economies have a comparative advantage in the production of something."

But the theory isn't turning out as planned. The coming fear from the 'West' is that: "China and India combined will eventually be able to make just about everything the West can, only cheaper."

So what's the solution?

According to the majority of the candidates currently running for President in the US, the answer appears to be to fall prey to protectionist impulses. If you're Mitt Romney, it means bringing back auto manufacturing plants to Michigan (bad idea). If you're Barack Obama you're concerned about the so-called 'sovereign funds' bailing out ailing AMERICAN companies (so what?). If you're a good number of the candidates, it's about sending home all the illegal immigrants (really bad idea!! I mean people, if you want to lower the value of the dollar globally so that you can push your exports, you gotta have something to export. And that means that something is going to have to be manufactured... and if the majority of the population isn't willing to sit out on the farm harvesting soybeans, what is the US going to export exactly? This is where I also note that food oil prices are at record highs, and in 2007, for the first time in history, over half the world's population now lives in cities).

National economic and social protectionism is not just a bad idea, it's a head-in-the-sand approach that doesn't take into consideration fundamental economic, social, political and cultural changes that have already been set in motion through processes of globalisation.

The economy is not just a local problem, not just a regional problem, and certainly not just a national problem. It is a global one! If anything, the sub-prime debacle has taught us that.

Other GLOBAL problems include: the HIV/AIDS epidemic, tax shelters that undermine the effectiveness of government bodies, bird flu, the environment, migration, terrorism and security, human rights, animal welfare, and the impending global food shortage just to name a few.

In my view, the problem is not the neo-liberal agenda. The problem is that it has been pushed in an economic silo to the extent that there is now a large fissure between the global economy and the rest of reality. Sure, economic globalisation has had knock-on effects. The impressive expansion of information and communication technologies (ICTs) like the Internet across the globe is a good example.

But laws that impede migration maintain inequality between nations. Poverty prevents access to global flows. Societies based on strong family linkages hinder mobility. Isolation allows for irresponsible consumption. Social protection programmes like social security and national healthcare are feeling the pinch, and insecurity impedes progress.

For a global economy to function, we MUST have a global society to match--and how we achieve that is the real question that should be asked at Davos.

And since I've started

I saw this article and it made me feel a little better about the US. This is what America should be: In a changed New York neighborhood, a hardy few take up Mandarin.

The article is about older residents in Flushing, a NY neighborhood that has become increasingly Chinese in character, taking Chinese classes to help them interact better with their new neighbors. Brilliantly written.

Developing America

Every once in a while, I see something so outrageous happening in the US that it makes me cringe. Mind you, I've been busy studying for my upcoming exams, so I might be riled and stressed in general, but I stumbled across this article and just couldn't believe my eyes: Challenging Washington's ban on needle-exchange funds.

To summarize: this article explains the history behind a bill that bans federally funded needle exchange program within Washington DC. Because DC is not located in any state, the federal government has control over its budget (even though the elected representative from the district is still not allowed a vote in Congress--unless her most recent attempt to gain one passed, I can't remember. It would be a recent change though). Back in 1988, Congress added a clause that refused funding for needle exchange programs in the city with the caveat that the President could effectively overturn this decision if the Surgeon General proved that needle exchange programs didn't lead to increased drug use. Although there have been many of these studies, Bill Clinton, for whom I have much admiration, never removed this clause. In 1998, the clause was then removed from the appropriations bill. And here I was, ready to launch into a scathing attack on Bush and his support for abstinence-only sex education for USAid-funded projects, and his approach to HIV/AIDS prevention in general. Then I find out it's not his fault (in this very limited instance).

Well, Bill Clinton, you should be ashamed of yourself for not trying harder to reverse this decision while you had the chance. And Bush, don't get complacent, absitenence-only sex education equals worst idea ever!

Consider the situation of DC now: "In Washington, with just over half a million residents, 1 in 20 are HIV positive. Its rate of new AIDS cases is 128.4 per 100,000 people, compared with a national average of 13.7 per 100,000, according to 2005 data, the most recent available from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

But now, some members of congress have finally recognized the completely inappropriate nature of this outmoded/uneducated provision and are trying to change it. I encourage you to contact your Representative and urge them to support Rep. José Serrano's effort to remove this ban!

You can find out how to contact your representative at http://www.house.gov/writerep/.

Busy Weeks and Busier Weekends

These past couple of months in California have actually been quite enjoyable.

I have grown into new responsibilities at work that have given me a chance to really make me feel like I belong. Beyond answering phones, I’ve been proofing reports and press releases, helping coordinate their release, and leading the production of our state reports. We release Measuring Up this Thursday, and so now I’ll be fielding reporter calls. It should be interesting. I think we have C-SPAN lined up for the release on Thursday morning EDT if you’re that interested. Otherwise, just know that if you hear things like “such and such a state receives an F in affordability,” that’s us!

But beyond work, the weekends have been lots of fun too.

Four weekends ago, one of my friends from Whitman, Harrison, came down to show his French “brother” (from the family who hosted him while he was in France) the Bay Area. We had a really fun time going down to Santa Cruz (my third weekend in a row, by chance) and visiting its famous boardwalk. While standing in line to buy tickets for the old-fashioned roller coaster, François ran into a Parisian whom he had met on the flight from Paris to Chicago. It truly is a small world! They started speaking in French and were so involved that they started to hold up the line. They eventually noticed and stepped over so that others could continue forward in line. The guys behind them came up behind us and scoffed. “Why can’t they just speak English?” he questioned disparagingly. Yes, we were showing François America.

The weekend after was spent with my mom, her brother (yes, that’d be my uncle), and his two younger sons on an excursion up to the Sacramento Valley and, more specifically, the ranch where my mom grew up. It was interesting to see just how isolated she had been growing up, and it was certainly good to finely have a clear picture to go with the numerous stories.

The old house had been long-since demolished, the farm having been bought at some point by a large farming conglomerate. The area where the house had been was so overgrown that we could only skirt the perimeter, staring through the spider webs. The sheep barn was still standing.

On my trip, I garnered a real appreciation for what my granddad accomplished when he was younger—raising five kids on a ranch thirty miles from the nearest quasi-town, working the fields, all while commuting in almost daily to Davis to get his PhD in Plant Pathology. To be fair, his mother did much of the managing of the farm, and my grandmother raised the five children, but it couldn’t have been an easy life. I began to understand better how it all fell apart.

At dinner that night, we got to talking with my uncle, and it was decided that we would come up to Napa (where he lives) to see him and go wine tasting the next weekend. He is the lead on-site supervisor for the construction company that has been working with Francis Ford Copolla on various projects around his vineyard, Rubicon.

We started down at the vineyard proper, and got to go briefly through the whole history of the grapes at this particular vineyard, see some movie memorabilia, and finally get on to the actual tasting. They mainly make reds at the vineyard, and the flagship wine, the Rubicon, was deep and full-bodied cabernet. That vineyard is not all talk!

My uncle then took the lead and showed us up to the project he is currently working on, the Copollas’ retirement home on a hill behind the vineyard overlooking the valley. It is an interesting house made entirely of cement. They had lined the concrete forms with cedar planks, giving the concrete a very interesting, wood-like texture. It is absolutely a piece of art, as my uncle doesn’t hesitate to mention, but I worry at how practical some of its spaces are.

After an afternoon of touring, we were ready for some of Napa’s famous foods. We actually stayed right by the Rubicon Estate, and went to the Rutherford Bar and Grille. I can honestly say that I haven’t had a better meal in a very long time. There was good wine, amazing corn bread, and a delicious ostrich steak, all topped off with a incredibly knowledgeable waitress. Having lived in China for the last couple of years, I have grown accustomed to not tipping, and find it almost absurd in most cases here in the US, but this waitress was so outstanding that I made sure she got a good tip.

And for this long weekend, it was a whirlwind (or a world-wind, as I kept accidentally saying) trip to the PacNW. I flew from San Jose to Seattle on Friday evening. In total, I saw 21 friends/family members on my three-day trip somewhere in and between Seattle, Portland, and San Jose. We even managed to have a mini Whitman reunion on Saturday night, and I enjoyed two (count ‘em two!) happy hours that evening. Apparently 5-7PM isn’t long enough anymore, now we must also have 11PM-1AM as an excuse to drink more. I’m really not complaining!

It was REALLY good to see all that I did, and I’m sorry if I missed others of you! Now, we hope that my British student visa comes through so that I can get to London next Sunday…

American Anecdotes, Part IV

Today is Labor Day, and it’s a travelling day. We started out this morning in Portland, Oregon and ended it in San Jose, California--lots of I-5.

We stopped in Mount Shasta City, CA for an early dinner at Burger King just around four. We would have held out for Redding, CA, but there was a radio traffic advisory that informed us of hour-and-a-half road delays ahead (and it turns out they weren't joking!).

With dinner in hand, we stepped out of the BK towards our car, which was parked at the far end of the lot under the trees. And, in a scene that drew my mind to American Beauty, a BK worker in a black polo and baseball cap sat on the curb smoking and communing with his surroundings. I felt as though we were trespassing upon his solitude and walked quickly by.

There was a car parked just to our car’s left with its back-right side door open, blocking the way to our driver’s side. A veiled woman sat in the back. She glanced at us and pulled the door shut for us to pass.

But then, there was her husband in front of their car, facing east towards Mecca. Hidden by his car on one side, and protected by the sanctuary of trees on his other, he was in the middle of his daily prayers. Talk about trespassing!

We got quietly into our car, and I appreciated more than ever that we had a hybrid that uses its silent electric motor at low speeds as we pulled out, abdicating the parking lot to its sacred stillness.

This is America.

Surreal Moment for Today

I took my lunch today at the park across the street from my work. Having stayed up much too late the night before trying to get reports printed, I managed to fall asleep on a park bench (not unlike several others I might add, but I was probably the only one wearing a pink tie).

The surreal moment came as I woke up, in that instant between sleep and wakefulness:

The sound that woke me up was a Hispanic MTF (male-to-female) in cutoff jeans on a bike yelling over in Spanish to her approaching friend, a very built Latino with a completely unbuttoned, flowy, black cotton, button-down shirt. They started to argue in front of the trashcan (in Spanish).

I wasn't sure if I was dreaming or awake, but I guess that's San Jose for ya! I only wish I actually understood Spanish when spoken rapidemente.

What I would have given to have understood what they were talking about!